Last updated: December 12, 2025
Guinea, or Guinea-Conakry, is a West African coastal state and former French colony. Despite the presence of copious mineral resources including the world’s largest reserve of bauxite, it is one of the poorest nations of Africa. The country’s independence in 1958 was championed by Ahmed Sékou Touré, who went on to lead Guinea as a dictator until his death in 1984.
Politics: The Postponed Promise of Return to Democratic Rule
For five decades after independence, Guinea was governed by just two authoritarian leaders who both died in office. After Touré’s death in 1984, Lansana Conté seized power in a coup. Conté’s death in 2008 was followed by a period of great instability marked by political violence. After a tumultuous two years, Alpha Condé won the first democratically held elections in the country’s history. Though constitutionally limited to two terms, he altered the constitution to allow him to run again, while increasing repression of political opponents. Condé was overthrown by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya in a military coup in 2021 that enjoyed broad popular support at the time.
Although the junta promised a return to democracy and civilian rule, this transition has been delayed and postponed, while violent crackdown of dissent become commonplace. Elections are planned to be held on December 28, however, whether these will be fair can be questioned. Major opposition parties have been dissolved to push ahead with a constitutional amendment that now allows Doumbouya to run for office. Rather than returning to civilian rule, the upcoming elections appear to serve as a means of legitimising and formalising military rule.
Security: Uncertainty and Volatility
Guinea’s security threat is strongly linked to its political instability. Protests have frequently turned violent in recent years and coup attempts remain common. In addition, security forces frequently use excessive force against protesters, while showing no interest in the protection of civil rights. The inability of the authorities to effectively combat violent crime in cities is also a pressing issue.
The Sahelian conflict remains an external threat to Guinea, which shares a 1,062km border with Mali. Attacks in Central and Western Mali have become more common in recent years, including several incidents close to Guinea’s border, increasing the risk of spillover. Internal unrest and instability is severely limiting the junta’s ability to address the jihadist threat, which requires cooperation with Bamako. Although Guinea has not experienced an attack on its territory, the likelihood is increasing. Much will depend on the ability of neighbouring Mali to counter the expanding insurgency.
