Last updated: January 21, 2026
Country Profile
Guinea-Bissau is a small, impoverished West African state and former Portuguese colony. Since its independence in 1973, the country has been plagued by authoritarian rule, political instability, and poor governance. It’s 2.3 million people are predominantly Muslim (~46%), with sizable minorities adhering to Traditional Beliefs (~30%) and Christianity (~20%).
Politics: post-coup uncertainty
Guinea-Bissau’s political landscape is shaped by instability, alternating between civilian and military rule. The country has experienced five successful coups since independence, including one as a recent as 26 November 2025, in which President Umaro Sissoco Embaló was overthrown. This latest military takeover, led by General Horta Inta-A Na Man, follows a contested election in which both the incumbent and opposition claimed victory and came just a day before the announcement of the results by the country’s electoral commission.
The coup has sparked allegations that it may have been staged with Embaló’s approval to prevent the opposition from seizing power. There are several reasons to suspect this is the case. First, the elections were marked by tampering and intimidation, demonstrating a lack of willingness to relinquish power on part of the incumbent government. Second, much of Embaló’s inner circle serves on the transitional government that was installed after the coup.
The military government has stated they aim to facilitate a return to civilian rule during a one-year transition period, however, whether this will result in democratic elections is highly doubtful. Furthermore, the coup has further strained its already complicated relationship with ECOWAS, which immediately responded with suspending the country from all its decision-making bodies. For now, the future of Guinea-Bissauan politics is uncertain and much will depend on what happens when the transition period ends in November 2026.
Security: political violence and terrorist recruitment
Guinea-Bissau gained its independence after a 9 year long war between the Marxist African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cabo Verde (PAIGC) and Portugal. The country has been plagued by political violence, usually revolving around coups and counter-coups. There is a pervasive problem surrounding unexploded landmines that continue to take casualties, mainly due to its independence war and a civil war in 1998-1999.
Guinea-Bissau does not have high-level threat of terrorism, but spillover from the conflict in Senegal’s Casamance region remains a point of concern. Nonetheless, Guinea-Bissau nationals have been recruited by terrorist groups in Sahel countries. Hence, the potential of (returning) radicalized individuals poses a threat to security. The country’s enduring political instability prevents the state from adequately addressing this issue, with weak institutions incapable of implementing effective programs aimed at countering extremism.
